Thursday, October 25, 2012

Polls, What Are They Good For?...

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny




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Having read the recent ABC/Washington Post poll I can only conclude the American electorate has yet to make up its mind.

A poll that reflects a majority of likely voters leaning to Romney and trusting him on the economy while at the same reflecting a majority of registered or likely voters expect Obama will win reelection says the outcome is still very uncertain. So, we wait impatiently until Tuesday November 6th after the "fat lady sings" to find what the future might bring. Given the two major candidates the future may very well not be bright.

ABC News - Mitt Romney has seized further advantage on economic issues at the core of the 2012 campaign, taking him to 50 percent support among likely voters vs. 47 percent for Barack Obama – Romney’s highest vote-preference result of the contest to date.

The difference between the two candidates is within the margin of sampling error in the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll, and their individual support levels have not significantly changed. But the momentum on underlying issues and attributes is Romney’s.

Romney’s gains are clear especially in results on the economy. This poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that likely voters now pick Romney over Obama in trust to handle the economy by 52-43 percent – the first time either candidate has held a clear lead over the other on this central issue.

Equally important, Romney has erased Obama’s customary advantage on which candidate better understands the economic problems of average Americans. Today, 48 percent pick Obama, 46 percent Romney – essentially a dead heat. Yesterday and today mark the first time in the campaign that Obama hasn’t had at least a marginally significant lead on economic empathy.

Within-group trends on both these economic measures were covered in yesterday’s analysis; they reflect movement in Romney’s direction almost exclusively among white men, and particularly among less-educated white men.

SIGNALS – There are other signals of Romney’s gains. Expectations are one: Fifty-two percent of likely voters now expect Obama to win the election, down from a peak of 61 percent in late September. Forty percent expect Romney to win – still well fewer than half, but up by 8 percentage points.

Notably, political independents divide by 42-46 percent on whether they expect Obama or Romney to win; that’s shifted dramatically from 61-31 percent in Obama’s favor. Whites, likewise, have moved from a 55-38 percent expectation in Obama’s favor Sept. 29 to 44-48 percent now. {Read More}

Really all this tells us is that over the next 11 days it will continue to be close, that neither candidate is strong, and that America is not happy. But we already knew that didn't we?

Via: Memeorandum

2 comments:

  1. Thanks, Les. Now I can't get Edwin Starr's "War, What is it Good For?" out of my head.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're welcome Will.

      I must say however, it was/is a good lick.

      Delete

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