As President Obama Continues His Slide In Public Opinion...
by: Les Carpenter Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny
Polls are admittedly mere indicators of the political pulse of the public. It is true arguments can be made that depending on the political preference(s), or leanings of the particular organization responsible for any specific poll that the poll may be manipulated through specific wording of poll questions. Questions intentionally designed to generate the response desired by the pollster. Few thinking individual would disagree.
President Obama's job approval ratings have been steadily declining and almost all polls reflect this decline. After considering multiple sources of information over a two week period Pew Research, Center for the People the Press seemed to be the most nonpartisan and thus reflective of the public's general sentiments.
A quick summary:
Partisan democrats while showing a decline in support for the president his core constituency remains solidly behind him. Republican support remains, as expected, at near sub zero temperatures.
The Charts:
It is clear that partisanship remains a factor in the public's perception of the President's performance and effectiveness. It is equally as clear that those who typically are less or non partisan are souring on the President's performance. These are the swing voters who may very well affect the outcome of the 2014 and 2016 elections. If the trend continues it may be a steep uphill battle for the democrats to even retain control of the senate.
Via: Memeorandum
Liberty -vs- Tyranny
Polls are admittedly mere indicators of the political pulse of the public. It is true arguments can be made that depending on the political preference(s), or leanings of the particular organization responsible for any specific poll that the poll may be manipulated through specific wording of poll questions. Questions intentionally designed to generate the response desired by the pollster. Few thinking individual would disagree.
President Obama's job approval ratings have been steadily declining and almost all polls reflect this decline. After considering multiple sources of information over a two week period Pew Research, Center for the People the Press seemed to be the most nonpartisan and thus reflective of the public's general sentiments.
A quick summary:
- Overall job approval rating 41%
- Americans disapprove of the way Obama is handling four of five major issues. Terrorism being the lone exception.
- Only 31% of Americans approve of the way Obama has handled the economy, 65% disapprove.
- 21% of independents give Obama positive marks on the economy, 65% of democrats approve. (No surprise there)
- Obama health care rating is a net negtive. 37% approve, 59% didapprove.
- Only 32% of the public aprove of the job Obama s doing on the immigration issue. 53% of democrats approve and 42% disapprove.
- Obama's job approval ratings have declined from 515 in May this year to 46% in July, 43% in October, and 41% now.
- Obama's 12-point difference between disapproval (53%) and approval (41%) over the last month is the largest of his presidency.
- Over the past year Obama's job approval ratings among his core supportyers has dropped from 88% to 78%. Republican aproval ratings have remained at just 12% over the sae time period.
Partisan democrats while showing a decline in support for the president his core constituency remains solidly behind him. Republican support remains, as expected, at near sub zero temperatures.
The Charts:
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It is clear that partisanship remains a factor in the public's perception of the President's performance and effectiveness. It is equally as clear that those who typically are less or non partisan are souring on the President's performance. These are the swing voters who may very well affect the outcome of the 2014 and 2016 elections. If the trend continues it may be a steep uphill battle for the democrats to even retain control of the senate.
Via: Memeorandum
In January of 1983, Ronald Reagan's approval rate was 35%. Does anyone remember that? You can look it up. By comparison, Mr. Obama right now is wildly more popular at 41%/.
ReplyDeleteFrom Gallup's webpage on Reagan:
Reagan's Ratings While He Was in Office
Reagan was not an extraordinarily well-regarded president during his eight years in office. He averaged a 53% job approval rating during his presidency, slightly below average for all U.S. presidents for which Gallup has recorded job approval ratings.
Reagan's ratings were higher than the averages of his three immediate predecessors -- Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, and Richard Nixon, supporting the arguments of those who contend that one of Reagan's major contributions was to restore confidence in the presidency after the battering it took in the 1970s. But the two presidents who followed Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, each had higher average ratings than Reagan, as did three earlier presidents -- Lyndon Johnson, John F. Kennedy, and Dwight Eisenhower.
I don't put too much importance in fluctuating job approval numbers. With every president, they go up and they go down, and then go up again.
Shaw, with all due respect I am puzzled with your retreat to the past in bringing up RWR. Reagan is dead and his legacy is what it is. Although I do realize your attempt to link Obama's poll numbers to Reagan's performance over his presidency.
DeleteI do not put much importance into singular snapshots in time polls either Shaw. Being a manager of businesses, and responsible for results for most of my life, I tend to view trends as reliable indicators. Obviously the longer the trend he more reliability, at least IMNHO.
So, I view this poll as a warning, or wake up call if you will for the democrats and progressives. Partisan democrats and partisan republicans will vote party line no matter what. Therefore independents hold the key to elections. The trend is not positive for democrats among independents right now.
Given this the democrats and the republicans have an opportunity going into 2014 and 2016 general elections.How they play their cards will determine the make-up of the next two congresses and the next presidential election.
Obama, who as you are aware cannot run for reelection so he is primarily concerned with his legacy. At least on the personal level. But, as a democrat, and partisan progressive he must be concerned with how he can best move his (and the progressive) agenda forward.
As America is yet a centrist nation it is going to be interesting to watch how this all plays out. I know your position as you've stated it quite clearly on your own site. Which is, if I understand correctly ... Mr. President, do NOT back down. Do NOT compromise. Stick to your guns (oops, is this politically incorrect?) at all costs because you are right.
Doing so may have significant consequences for your case Shaw...
I think the administration's foreign policy has been looking up recently.
ReplyDelete1. Improved relations with Iran. Both sides have stopped the threats and are talking.
2. Syria destroys most of their chemical weapons.
3. Congolese rebels surrender thanks to our pressure on Rwanda.
I'd like to see changes in the drone policy but there have been positives recently.
Ducky...
Delete#1) Agree
#2) Ya think? Perhaps they found their way elsewhere. Just like Iraq.
#3) Do I care? Should I care? Does it affect or national interests?
I as well would like to see changes in Obama's drone policies.
It's probably a good thing that Obama is unpopular with the American public. If he was popular, I'd be a little worried.
ReplyDeleteJMJ
Really?
DeleteActually jmj, as a manager in business for 35 years I understand what you are saying. It is by FAR more important to be respected than it is to be POPULAR.
So, why isn't there a poll that asks simply... Do you RESPECT the president based on YOUR understanding of his policies and their relative effectiveness?
Obama's situation doesn't really allow for much popularity, and much of the public doesn't understand that fact.
DeleteSome of them think the government is like a private business. Imagine if your business held elections every two years for managers, every six years for officers and every four years for CEO. In your 35 years, Les, you would have had to be elected 18 times, you may have gone through as many as 6 different sets of officers and 8 CEOs. The point is, the government is not a business.
Respect and popularity are the fleeting spirits of our democracy. Remember, much of Obama's unpopularity comes from the left.
Obama inherited a complex and unstable situation and he handled it pretty well. He seems like a decent and intelligent man who has felt the weight of the office and handled it pretty well. I respect him very much, though I often disagree with things he does, or more the way he does them. He's not a good parliamentarian, but he's an excellent statesman. He's a friggin' hell of a lot better than anything the cons have offered, I'll tell ya' that.
JMJ
Government is business. It is The Business of Running the Nation. If not true why then a budget? Although I do have to acknowledge they mean little anymore.
DeleteYour point is interesting, and valid with. respect to working in a business environment affected by election of officers. It quite likely would be inefficient, unproductive, disjointed, and in short a mess. Yep, sounds just like our government. I'll leave it at that.
Yeah, Obama inherited a complex and unstable environment, and continued in the economic sense much as GWB was when he left office. A statesman? Well, he may be considered that by some. Certainly he is not the best statesmen in ourcounties history.
Certainly Obama is no Ben Franklin, James Monroe, Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, or even a Bill Clinton. IMNHO. Republicans had Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson, unfortunately neither had the opportunity to be tested. In my view both would have been as good, and likely better than Obama in the role of statesman.
DeleteApparently you agree. Respect is more important than popularity. Whether it be in business or government you get a hell of a lot more done with it than without it. It's just the way it is.
I think the American people, at least those who are not racists and/or rabid partisans, respect and like the President. But they know that is not enough. There are realities that popularity and respect simply can't overcome.
DeleteObama is an excellent statesman, and he will be remembered as such. He hasn't been faced with the sorts of matters of state that the historically "great statesmen" have faced, so it's hard to make a comparison, but in such matters he has faced, he's performed admirably.
JMJ
The only polls that matter are at the ballot box and after the last two presidential elections it is clear that along with fraud, the American electorate is completely clueless as to what the hell is going on.
ReplyDeleteThe complete lack of information based in reality of Americans is shameful least and quite obviously dangerous when considering we are the government in the end, well we were anyhow.
Christopher, could you please translate your comment into English because I sincerely have no idea what it means. Thank you.
DeleteCP - Rather than surmise what you are driving at (I think I know) I will second Shaw's request for clarification. Your considered response shall be most appreciated.
DeleteAlthough what I stated is clearly English, I will translate as requested as it seems Shaw resides in Rio Linda.
Delete- Polls are based upon tiny group's, which are hardly representative of those who actually vote, hence my reference to the ballot box and/or actual voting.
- Polls, furthermore are but a snapshot of opinion which can change on any given day and not knowing the actual participants, their leanings or legality for that matter are all but useless in their outcome. This eludes directly to my declaration as the ballot box as the only poll that matters.
- Speaking on both the factor of legality and the action of voting brings in the very valid point I bring to bear on fraud. (See Chicago as an example).
- As to my statement on information or lack thereof as it were in Americans, well that is world renown, and proof of this is before our eyes in our "school" systems, MSM and most evident in election's.
- As to who is the government and gives or takes the power to be governed, well please consult a copy of the United States Constitution, if one still exists.
Thanks Chris
DeleteYou are absolutely correct, the only polls that matter... Elections. Our man in question won the two biggest polls a person can participate in.
Here is a link to the National Council on Public Polls that gives us information on polls and what to consider when reading them.
DeleteThe American electorate, by electing Mr. Obama twice and with comfortable margins, has demonstrated that they wish to see President Obama implement his policies. That has nothing to do with voter fraud or anything else people try to use as a reason he was re-elected.
BTW, Chris, I live in Boston, not Rio Linda.
Obama got reelected the same exact way that FDR did, through constituency politics and hard-core cronyism. That, and he had a pitiful opponent.
ReplyDelete