Purveyor of Truth
It really isn't looking good for Trump. Not understanding the rules of the game, at least not fully, Trump has failed to built the depth of support that would place him in a stronger position on a second ballot. Trump is obviously feeling the strain of the campaign and for a man who caims to never lose he is quite possibly facing a yuge loss in July.
THE BIG IDEA:
-- If Donald Trump cannot get 1,237 delegates on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in July, his campaign will be all but over – except for the shouting.
Many delegates who will be bound to support Trump on the first, and in some cases second, ballot tell us both publicly and privately that they will defect to Ted Cruz or whoever has momentum once they’re freed up from their obligation.
In some places, such as North Carolina, the Cruz campaign has put their most loyal and reliable grassroots supporters into the Trump delegate slots at district-level conventions.
Trump has lashed out so hard in recent days because this reality is finally sinking in. "The system, folks, is rigged … It’s a rigged, disgusting, dirty system,” he said in New York yesterday. “When everything is done, I find out I get less delegates than the guy who got his a** kicked."
This dynamic is also why he’s redoubling his focus on locking up the nomination during the primaries that remain through June.
This problem is not unique to Trump. Veteran strategists who have worked contested GOP conventions at the state level agree that the front-runner’s support usually tends to peel off if he cannot break 50 percent on the first ballot. The pressure will be especially high in this case because Trump is such a polarizing figure. More Below The Fold.