Romney's Recent Gains in Polls Showing "Staying Power"...
by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny
Nate Silver, the guy who has a rather remarkable record of accuracy in predicting outcomes is now saying Romney's gain in the polls following the first debate is showing signs of staying power. Good news for the Romney campaign and his supporters and reason to cause alarm in the Obama campaign and among his progressives supporters.
In his article on October 11th Nate Silver pointed out the President's "swing state firewall" is showing signs of thinning, or becoming "brittle."
At this point in time the momentum is shifting and headed in Romney's direction. It is going to be critical for Romney to repeat his successful first debate performance against the President (two more times) for him to have a shot at winning the election.
Accomplishing the task of defeating Obama in both of the remaining debates won't be easy...
Via: Memeorandum
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny
Nate Silver, the guy who has a rather remarkable record of accuracy in predicting outcomes is now saying Romney's gain in the polls following the first debate is showing signs of staying power. Good news for the Romney campaign and his supporters and reason to cause alarm in the Obama campaign and among his progressives supporters.
The New York Times - Mitt Romney continues to surge in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, and Friday may have featured his best set of polls all year.
The best way to track a change in the polls is to look for instances in which the same firm has surveyed the same state (or the national race) multiple times. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model relies on a procedure very much like this to calculate the overall trend in the race.
Fifteen polls were released on Friday that provided a comparison with another survey conducted between the Democratic convention and last week’s debate in Denver. Mr. Romney gained an average of 4.6 percentage points in these surveys.
That is actually a bit larger than we were showing earlier in the week, when the same exercise put Mr. Romney’s postdebate bounce more in the range of three or four percentage points.
It is not clear whether Mr. Romney is still gaining ground — or whether he benefited from a couple of outlying results. The median change in the polls, which will be less sensitive to potential outliers, was a three-point gain for Mr. Romney, more like earlier in the week.
But unlike earlier, Mr. Romney is now seeing some of his best results in swing state polls. Six of the seven polls published on Friday from such states had him ahead.
Thus, just as the hypothesis of a fading Romney bounce was damaged on Friday, so was the idea (which we critiqued in an earlier post) that his gains would be more modest in the swing states. {Continue Reading For More Analysis}
In his article on October 11th Nate Silver pointed out the President's "swing state firewall" is showing signs of thinning, or becoming "brittle."
At this point in time the momentum is shifting and headed in Romney's direction. It is going to be critical for Romney to repeat his successful first debate performance against the President (two more times) for him to have a shot at winning the election.
Accomplishing the task of defeating Obama in both of the remaining debates won't be easy...
Via: Memeorandum
Knowing two more debates are coming up. I disregard some pundit saying Romney's polls have "staying power." And anyone who believes that, haven't been watching politics for more than this years election.
ReplyDeleteNate Silver, that guy who PE, one of the lefts more reasonable blogs almost hailed as the guru of these type of judgmental calls.
DeleteTalk to PE.
PE is not Nate Silver, and I doubt very much he does what PE says.
DeleteThis is your post on your blog.
Just making a point. Liberals apparently find Nate handy only when his data and or opinion supports their desires and prejudices.
DeleteWhen it gets very close to the election, there is a point of no return, meaning that anything that happens has no effect on the outcome.
ReplyDeleteIf it has not passed already, it will likely pass before the final debate.
You are probably right.
DeleteGet set for 4 more years of continued leftist movement.
The Supreme Court will likely fall to the left during another 4 years of an Obama administration.
The Obama folks are still clearly looking for the Goldilocks zone. Obama comes out without a pulse and then Biden looks like a man who needs to be institutionalized. Maybe they can eventually get their act together.
ReplyDeleteLikely not, even if Obama gets a pulse.
DeleteAs for Biden... Barnum and Bailey could always use another clown.
If Hillary gets thrown under the bus she might spill the beans and resign. That would nail Obama..
ReplyDeleteThat may very well be in the realm of possibility. Somehow though, I'm admittedly guessing here, Obama or those on his team have likely thought this scenario out. A compromise deal will be struck with the Clinton's so as to allow for a graceful resignation so Obama maintains a better than even shot at retaining the White House and will position Hillary for 2016, with Obama solidly supportive of her aspirations to be the first women president of the United States....
DeleteShe might. Hillary now badly damaged as she repeated Obama's lie about Libya for many days, and also harshly attacked our First Amendment freedoms.
ReplyDeleteObama showed his contempt for the Constitution. Hillary followed along.
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