Purveyor of Truth
Nate Silver asks ten questions and goes on to provides his insight as he addresses them. Polls are tightening and Trump has indeed been closing the gap between himself and HRC over the past couple of weeks.
FiveThirtyEight is well respected and enjoys an unusually high degree of accuracy in polling data and election predictions. While HRC certainly isn't in any serious trouble as yet the three presidential debates yet remain.
The remaining run to November 8th will be interesting. Hopefully the candidates will focus on issues, provide truthful information, and be VERY specific as to their roadmap for fixing the nation's fiscal and social challenges.
1. Who’s ahead in the polls right now?
What’s the degree of uncertainty?
What’s the short-term trend in the polls?
What’s the medium-term trend in the polls?
Which states shape up as most important?
Does one candidate appear to have an overall edge in the Electoral College, relative to his or her position in the popular vote?
How do the “fundamentals” look?
How do FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts compare against prediction markets?
What would keep me up late at night if I were Clinton?
What would keep me up late at night if I were Trump?
Find Nate's analysis BELOW THE FOLD.