Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking... FiveThirtyEight

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Nate Silver asks ten questions and goes on to provides his insight as he addresses them. Polls are tightening and Trump has indeed been closing the gap between himself and HRC over the past couple of weeks.

FiveThirtyEight is well respected and enjoys an unusually high degree of accuracy in polling data and election predictions. While HRC certainly isn't in any serious trouble as yet the three presidential debates yet remain.

The remaining run to November 8th will be interesting. Hopefully the candidates will focus on issues, provide truthful information, and be VERY specific as to their roadmap for fixing the nation's fiscal and social challenges.


The Questions

1. Who’s ahead in the polls right now?

What’s the degree of uncertainty?

What’s the short-term trend in the polls?

What’s the medium-term trend in the polls?

Which states shape up as most important?

Does one candidate appear to have an overall edge in the Electoral College, relative to his or her position in the popular vote?

How do the “fundamentals” look?

How do FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts compare against prediction markets?

What would keep me up late at night if I were Clinton?

What would keep me up late at night if I were Trump?

Find Nate's analysis BELOW THE FOLD.

12 comments:

  1. Here's what would keep me up at night if I were Clinton... A 3AM call from the FBI or State saying they found some irregularities in her emails and they want to discuss it the next day.

    If I'm Donald? The IRS finishing his audit before election day.

    Look, this race is still going to come down to a few states. Can Trump turn a few blues red?

    Who knows, maybe this time the debates will really matter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think you are right, Dave.

      George HW Bush:"What's a supermarket scanner?'

      Trump: "What's a supermarket?"

      Delete
    2. I think you are right, Dave.

      George HW Bush:"What's a supermarket scanner?'

      Trump: "What's a supermarket?"

      Delete
  2. If you were looking at the Real Pollls ,,,Trump has always been 15 points ahead of Hillary, only 35% of Americans are for the tit mouse.

    Hey lady you better take something for that Caugh.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Proving yet again your alt right ignorance.

      But thanks for stopping by. Don't let the door hit you in the a*s.

      Delete
    2. Hey Mr... Can you cite one or two of those Real Pollls ,,,? Or are you just making stuff up?

      Delete
    3. Dmarks... Yeah... What is a caugh???

      Trump owns the white uneducated demographic.

      Just sayin...

      Delete
  3. Even the medias love affair with the clintons is dust.

    Hillary just has far too many scandals to be considered seriously. too many Email lies.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well Anita Says It Right, that is certainly something for the desperate to hang on to.

      HRC surely has many flaws. They pale when honestly compared to Drumpf.

      Delete
    2. Anita is right. Don't believe the leftist hype, real poll shows members of the military prefer TRUMP by 19 points !

      Delete
  4. Ah yes. Trump the neo con. More military spending leading to more conflicts/wars, more global policing to insure things are done our way, and more national debt as a result.

    No thanks. Been there done that and we see the horrible results. Thanks GWB.

    ReplyDelete

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