Purveyor of Truth
Presidential hopeful and presumptive GOP nominee Donald J. Trump wants to Make America Great "Again". His economic policies, analyzed by Moody, paints a not so rosy picture. At the very least Mr. Trump needs to explain in depth what his policies would be, demonstrate why they would be successful and how Moody's analysis is incorrect.
Moody's Analytics - Presidential candidates often put forward proposals that are as much political statements as firm policy positions. No one expects that their proposals will get through the legislative process and into law fully intact. But while the policy proposals put forward by candidates are generally well overstated, they are a statement on their philosophy and priorities. Mr. Trump’s economic policy proposals should be considered through this lens. He has suggested that he might be willing to bend his position on taxes and perhaps tariffs. He has even intimated that his policy statements are simply a negotiating stance— he is asking for a lot more up front than he ultimately expects to get.
Having said this, what he is asking for is fiscally unsound. His tax and spending proposals will result in very large deficits and a much higher debt load. A future Congress may be able to rein in this profligacy, but it will not be easy, as there is a gulf between what he says he wants on taxes and spending and what it will take to make the budget arithmetic work.
He is also very suspicious of globalization. His willingness to threaten higher tariffs on U.S. trading partners and his sharp criticism of major trade deals signal a reversal on the long-running expansion of U.S. trade and foreign investment. Requiring millions of undocumented immigrants to leave the country also signals less openness to the rest of the world. The upshot of Mr. Trump’s economic policy positions under almost any scenario is that the U.S. economy will be more isolated and diminished.
Article from the Wall Street Journal.
Complete Moody's Analytics analysis.
Knowing what we know about Mr. Trump's track record relative to honesty a deep and healthy skepticism of everything he utters would be an advisable policy.