Purveyor of Truth
Every show has an end. Just like "The Apprentice" — gripping the first few few seasons, tired and contrived in the last — Donald Trump's campaign is aging toward death, one reckless outburst at at time. Although the casual political junkie wouldn't know by the looks of most polls, the media fetish with The Donald and his cultish following.
With primaries a bit less than 50 days out, at this point, previously skeptical pundits have assumed not only that Trump is the front-runner in the GOP primary, but that there is no real contest. But while cable news is capitalizing off of kabuki theater, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has been backstage outplaying the entire GOP field.
In the modern ratings-based media world we live in, where candidates get attention off fundraising numbers and sensationalism, we often miss the politics brewing below the surface. Even seasoned politicos get distracted by earned media and national polls; but just as former House Speaker Tip O'Neill (D-Mass.) declared decades ago, the tried and tested formula of winning a presidential primary remains the same: It's all local.
Which is why, at this point in the campaign, we should prioritize "likely GOP voter" polls in early primary states over national and "total registered GOP voters" polls — like the Monmouth University poll out last week taken of Iowa GOP voters who have voted in previous caucuses, which shows Cruz winning at 24 percent (Trump is at 19 percent). Or, Sunday's Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus-goers, which has Cruz at 31 percent and Trump 10 percentage points behind.
Recent general GOP polls (like this one and this one), where Trump is winning, factor in new Republican voters — a key portion of his support, but also those less likely to engage in the arduous Iowa caucus voting. And if those voters don't turn out, suddenly Trump drops below Cruz (in Iowa and South Carolina) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (in New Hampshire) in early primary states, making him dead on arrival to that "brokered convention" the media are fantasizing about.
All the focused polls in early primary states this week show Cruz's momentum growing, a reflection of his formulaic long-term strategy centered on fundraising, investment in ground game across the country, key endorsements and messaging to a coalition of conservative voters.
As we approach the final stretch before primaries begin, third-quarter fundraising reports indicate the health of a presidential campaign. Cruz not only out-raised all other candidates ($12.2 million), but he has assiduously maintained the most cash on hand ($13.8 million). While other big raisers (former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina) have spent resources on pricey ads, Cruz focused on field — perhaps saving media buys for the final days and tight race states. Cruz's investment in ground operations has paid off, as he notably has the strongest infrastructure in Iowa and South Carolina, and is far ahead of the pack in Super Tuesday primary states.
It was to be expected actually. As neo-fascist Trumpf has continued to open his mouth and utter his bigoted, misogynist, and anti American rhetoric in his trademark braggadocio style, Ted Cruz has been quietly building support where it counts; giving him an edge in the early GOP caucus and primary states.
Most would agree Ted Cruz is the brightest and quickest wit in of the entire GOP field. He appeals to the fundamentalist Evangelical base of the GOP as well as effectively cover his bases with the neo cons that see every diplomatic problem as an opportunity for further military engagement. This makes him a palatable candidate to the Trumpf supporters as well. In short, he is as dangerous, if not more so to the preservation of American core values than Trumpf may be.
Would be buyers BEWARE.