Saturday, February 16, 2013

Is Time Running Out for the Republican Party?...

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty
-vs- Tyranny



The future does not look bright for either the Republican Party or it's Tea Party faction. There are more than just a couple of reasons I make this statement, but perhaps the biggest reason is found in the changing demographics of the United States. I touched on this issue in priors posts here, here, and here, but the issue deserves revisiting as it is very likely the single most important factor that will determine the future fate of the Republican party.

Demographic changes as well as other issues the Republican party will need to address effectively if the party is to remain relevant is outlined in some detail by Michael Gerson & Peter Wehner writing for Commentary.

Excerpt: -The first factor is America’s changing demographics. Much has been written on this topic, but the essential datum is the long-term shrinking of those demographic groups, especially white voters, who traditionally and reliably favor the GOP: from 89 percent of the electorate in 1976 to 72 percent in 2012. This decline is partially an artifact of a change in the way the Census Bureau classifies Hispanics, who used to be counted among whites before being placed in a separate category. But it has much more to do with a real, ongoing change in the composition of the American populace. In any given contest, the GOP can overcome this obstacle. Over time, however, the obstacle will grow ever larger.

Consider the performance of Mitt Romney, who carried the white vote by 20 points. If the country’s demographic composition were still the same last year as it was in 2000, he would now be president. If it were still the same as it was in 1992, he would have won in a rout. If he had merely secured 42 percent of the Hispanic vote—rather than his pathetic 27 percent—Romney would have won the popular vote and carried Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico. Republicans, in short, have a winning message for an electorate that no longer exists. {Continue Reading}

The plight of the Republican Party is not hopeless, however, unless it's members do some honest and deep introspection and admit that times are changing what is now only a possibility WILL become REALITY.

Via: Memeorandum

34 comments:

  1. Les,

    Point of Order: The TEA Party has Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, etc, etc. It's not a political party, it's a principled mindset.

    To line them up with the GOP is the same as me saying all Libertarians are pro-legalized pot. Simply not true.

    ReplyDelete
  2. There's another demo, and more a important one for a good time to come, that you have to consider is the young white vote. Obama lost some of that this time around, but after that 2008 bump, he established a formidable bloc of young white voters who have proven that '08 was not a fluke, coming out in large numbers again. The majority of these voters will probably vote democratic most of the rest of their lives.

    The GOP lost these voters to haphazard wars, religious zealotry, hypocrisy, and general unscientific thinking. I don't see them turning that around any time soon. Either they elevate their constituency, or be dragged down by them.

    JMJ

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  3. ConFire3, are you kidding? The "Tea Party," as most thinking people understand it, is a loose assemblage of far-right Republicans unhappy with the GOP Establishment. The Tea Party wants more, and all sorts of loony things, which explains why they haven't cohered. I mean look at the SOTU response. Two Tea Party guys? No, Rubio doesn't "Tea Party" enough. Sure enough, though, very few Tea Party guys won higher elections. Only in Texas did they manage to get one of them, that goofy idiot Cruz, into the Senate.

    We all know what the TEA Party is and we all know what the Tea Party is and you're not fooling anyone.

    JMJ

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    Replies
    1. jmj, The Tea Party's quest for a more limited and responsible federal government is one that I actually support. Unfortunately the Tea Party has attracted people that fail to understand that we live I'm a changing nation and that limited responsible government does not mean the government of 1789.

      Government does have a responsibility to it's citizens, one of which is to spend within its means. The flip side of that of course is citizens must be willing to pay for that which they demand.

      unfortunately there seems to be a disconnect at many levels of society and government. And the disconnect occurs both in liberal and conservative ideology.

      Perhaps someday people and politicians will start focusing on the modern realities and put the effort into fixing issues rather than just kicking the can down the road.

      Delete
    2. Just wondering jmj, what is your take on Dr. Benjamin Carson?

      Delete
    3. Jersey: There is nothing far-right about it. Most thinking people think it is strongly conservative. Only those who lack critical thinking skills think it is extreme.

      The Tea Part is the more intellectual, responsible wing of the GOP. You can start with such policies as pushing for much lower debt and deficits (the regular GOP wants it super high like Obama). And go on to it favoring reform and accountability with the Fed.

      Delete
    4. I didn't say "extreme." I said "far right," which one would think is synonymous with "strongly conservative" to most Americans.

      To say the Tea Party is more intellectual and responsible is a joke. They may have some goals with some merit, but the way they go about things, and much of what they believe, is just silly nonsense. About as far from intellectual and responsible as you can get. Thankfully, most voters agree with me on that.

      JMJ

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  4. Carson? Well, he's a little rude. Aside from that, he holds views I consider backwards and fundamentalist.

    Whatever the Tea Parties stated goals, their actions have been pretty standard far right socon boilerplate. I'm sure they'll all love this guy.

    JMJ

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  5. It makes no sense for the Tea Party to caucus with Republicans. Republican policies are the cause of our deficit spending, and growing government. Like Paul they feel it's a non starter if they try to start a third party. With the Republican party falling apart, I think it's time for a third party.

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  6. With near record high taxation, Les, I think the citizens are "willing to pay" for what is demanded. But I don't think many are demanding welfare for people of means, government employee pay that makes government employees millionaires, typically overpaying workers in government unions, and the rest of the massive waste.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 17 trillion in debt makes it obvious that citizens are not willing to pay for what they demand from government. We are not even near record high taxation. The WW II generation paid more than twice the tax rate we pay. They knew the programs they voted for from FDR to LBJ costs a lot of money, and taxed themselves accordingly. It is our generation who kept demanding those programs, but decided not to pay for them (cut taxes in half). Our debt is not caused by overpaid government workers, or even waste; it is the size of government, those programs, and the promises government has made to its people, which the people voted for, supported, and still want.

      Delete
    2. "With near record high taxation," ROTFLMAO!!! dmarks, you really need to keep up with modern history.

      JMJ

      Delete
    3. Jersey: Yearly tax revenues were a little higher a few years ago. But they are currently close that record high. Just looking at the actual tax revenues, without cooking the numbers by dividing it by someone else.

      Anon said: "Our debt is not caused by overpaid government workers, or even waste".

      Correction: Our debt is made by the sum of all of this.

      Anon said; "We are not even near record high taxation"

      Check real tax dollars, and stop lying about it. It's far greater than what WW2 spent.

      Anon said: " and the promises government has made to its people, which the people voted for, supported, and still want. "

      Not at all. The government has plenty of money to fund these programs properly. Even if a lot of the budget was cut.

      Anon flat out lied "It is our generation who kept demanding those programs, but decided not to pay for them (cut taxes in half)."

      While tax RATES went down, tax REVENUES (the real total of taxation) soared. Programs demanded, and properly funded by taxation. Stop trying to lie about it.

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    4. To bad your tax facts are wrong, but I won't call you a liar, just stupid

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    5. dmarks, I guess math is as foreign to you as history. Revenues are always hitting record highs. It's just normal growth. This isn't "cooking numbers," this is A FACT. As a percent of GDP, a number that actually means something, tax revenues are at a historical average. Compared with other developed nations, our tax revenues as a percentage of GDP have long been weirdly low.

      And again you show that you do not understand math, or the scientific method, when you point out that revenues went up when taxes went down (they didn't "soar"). You're pseudo-hypothesizing that revenues would have went down or not as high had taxes gone up. How the heck would you know that? As well, as a percent of GDP, revenues were flat, and historically low, after the Reagan tax cuts. Now, you could say that was because of growth, but during the Clinton years, when their was more growth and higher taxes, revenues per GDP did actually "soar" and sure enough, the budget was finally balanced.

      Once again, conservatism proven wrong.

      JMJ

      Delete
  7. Political parties do fade away. Remember the political parties in the earliest days of our nation? They're gone -- for a long time now.

    IMO, race does play a significant part in the present plight of the GOP -- possibly a big part.

    But I do not discount some of the stupid statements that come out of Republicans' mouths.

    In my view, the GOP has a significant pr problem. And many voters base their decisions upon perceptions -- not reality.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, Republicans have to stop their members making stupid statements in front of cameras. But unless they are lying, those stupid statements do reflect their reality.

      Delete
    2. "In my view, the GOP has a significant pr problem."

      Yeah. because the ideas (improved government services, much less waste of tax dollars, lower and more fair taxation, equal treatment regardless of race, workers rights, ending corporate welfare, making the Fed accountable, positive school reform focusing on improving education rather than keeping bad teachers in the classroom, patient choice instead of government choice in healthcare, etc etc etc) are all mostly in contrast to the Democratic policies. and mostly real winners. But the speakers aren't as polished as Obama, so style wins the day instead of substance.

      Delete
  8. The Tea Party movement is a convoluted mess of theocons, neocons, Libertarians, independents, Paulites etc. The problem with the GOP is that its fractured base can't agree on core principles. Most establishment Republicans support big government, draconian assaults on civil liberties, social intolerance and worship of the military. This does not bode well for the future of the Republican Party.

    At the state level, Republicans are doing much better so long as they deliver on promises to clean up the economic and fiscal messes left by big spending Democrats. Republican Gov. Chris Christie is enjoying very high approval ratings in a solidly blue state. Other blue states are run by Republicans who had no problem getting elected.

    I see no hope for the GOP at the national level and am happy with my 2006 decision to stop voting Republican. The socially intolerant War Party needs to just die. There are not enough liberty activists to outvote the theocratic wearmongering Nazis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "War Party" being a ephemism from the Pat Buchanan Nazi pseudo-conservative movement to denigrate those who believe that the US should fight back when it is attacked.

      Delete
  9. Ms Morris hit it right on the nose with the exception that the vast majority of them always vote Republican. "The Tea Party movement is a convoluted mess of theocons, neocons, Libertarians, independents, Paulites etc." Young voters came out in significant numbers in '08 and '12 again, and will likely vote most of the rest of their lives, turning around the downward turnout of the last generation. These voters are not the least bit enchanted with the religious right, hawks, and hyper-individualists with a mash of sane and crazy ideas, few of which are the least bit realistic.

    As the GOP establishment desperately clings to relevancy, the Tea Party drags them into becoming the occasional local phenomena in the North and West Coast, with only the South as truly Red.

    We are now in the growth spurt between being a center right country to becoming center left. This is a reaction to the misdeeds of the of the GOP in the first decade of the millennium, and the growing sense that the legacy of the "Me Generation" is not good.

    The GOP still has a lot of power inside the states, but even there, as more voters turn on, we see them in a slide, with a 200 seat net loss in the state legislatures in '12.

    The GOP is in trouble. The Tea Party won't be around much longer. I'm surprised they lasted this long! But then, Obama did win again, so...

    JMJ

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  10. The only thing that would destroy the republican party is if it came back to the sanity of Eisenhower or Gerald Ford. It's base is the kooks and simple minded that buy in to Rove style advertising. Memories are short. The right combination of scary catch phrases could easily bring the republican party back. And really, because of gerrymandering it owns the House anyway and enough Senate seats to prevent any legislation it wants to prevent.

    The fact also is too many of the Democrats base are so unmovable in whatever their favorite issue is that the Dems have no chance to put the republicans out of our misery. While the republicans will always vote republican, too many Dems will stay home on election day rather than vote for someone not pro choice enough or any of a myriad of other reasons.

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  11. I don't think Les will mind if I link to a post on my blog that fits in nicely with his subject matter on his current post. The link is for an essay by Garry Wills, a scholar, southerner, and devout Catholic--who has not been shy about criticizing the organization that is the RCC. Wills makes some very cogent points, understanding the Teapublicans, the South,its culture, and its stubbornly tragic reluctance to change.

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  12. Replies
    1. Thanks for posting the link to this very thoughtful and IMNHO though provoking article at RN USA.

      I have but two observations; 1) The fear of change limits the opportunities for growth, and 2) those who fail to understand history are destined to repeat the mistakes of the past.

      An active mind is a blessing, as such it is a terrible thing to waste.

      My two cents worth. Again Shaw thanks for the link.

      Delete
  13. Note to Jersey, in 1954, when the top marginal tax rate was 91%, the federal government collected (in today's dollars) approximately $2,600 per person in revenue. In 1984, when the top marginal tax rate was 50%, the federal government collected (again, in today's dollars) approximately $5,700 per person in revenues. Exorbitantly high marginal tax rates, while they obviously make you fell all warm and fuzzy inside (ostensibly because they stick it to the wealthy), are crappy for the economy and actually reduce federal revenue.

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    Replies
    1. Once again demonstrating there really is a "happy medium" that works. Certainly better than either extremes. But you and I always knew this methinks.

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    2. You have to compare to then's purchasing power. When one worker in the family was enough to pay the bills and afford the luxuries of the day (car, 2nd car, TV, cabin, vacations, etc) extras most cannot afford on 2012 wages, with multiple workers in a family. $2,600 then could buy more than $5,700 today, and was a much higher percentage of their yearly income, than those who pay $5,700 today.

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    3. These numbers are adjusted for inflation and they don't even take into account the increases in quality and variety.

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    4. And the cost of living hasn't gone up, it's gone down. ............Please, follow me. In 1973, the average hourly wage was $4.12 an hour and, because of that, it took 75.2 hours to earn an average dishwasher ($310), 70.4 hours to earn an average stove ($290), 6.1 hours to earn an average toaster ($25), and 89.8 hours to earn an average refrigerator ($370). Compare that to 2009 when the average wage was $18.72 an hour and these very same items took only 30.4 , 34.7, 1.6, and 22.7 hours respectively to earn ($570, $650, $30, and $425). People are MUCH better off than they were 40 years ago.

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    5. I don't consider having 3 workers to achieve the living standard that one worker use to, better off. I guess you do.

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    6. Never mind him, Will. His math is kindergarten level, apparently. Numbers above "2" make his brain hurt.

      Delete
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